Canadian Housing Market Update: October 2025

There was hope that the Bank of Canada’s September 17 interest rate cut would provide a little juice for the housing market, powering it to another month of increased home sales.

But sales dipped 1.7% versus August, resulting in the first monthly decrease the market has experienced since April. Sales dropped in several major cities: Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton and, significantly, Montreal, one of the country’s hottest markets this year.

Even though the monthly slide in sales amounted to fewer than 600 transactions nationwide, it still affected most provinces. Those that enjoyed increased sales — Manitoba and Saskatchewan — offer some of the cheapest real estate in Canada. That’s probably not a coincidence.

It’s possible that September’s decline could be a blip. It’s also possible that a convergence of factors is beginning to throttle demand: high consumer debt levels, household budgets stretched past the breaking point and uncertainty about the state of the economy. If that’s the scenario we’re in, sales will likely keep declining.

Having said all that, zooming out a little shows a slightly sunnier picture.

On a year-over-year basis, sales were up 5.2% versus September 2024. That’s not a blow-your-hair-back kind of increase, but it’s notable when you consider how much dicier the economy is today than it was a year ago.

Prices, unemployment and economic uncertainty have all increased this year, giving home buyers plenty of reason to hit pause. But year-to-date, home sales in Canada are only down 0.8% compared to the first nine months of 2024.

That’s resilience. And in the current economic environment, resilience is victory.

Provincial winners and losers

On a monthly basis, only Saskatchewan and Manitoba posted sales increases, and they weren’t exactly enormous: Saskatchewan’s 2.2% increase amounted to 34 sales, while Manitoba’s rise of 5.4% added up to 79.

The winner’s circle isn’t exactly crowded this month, so we’re granting an honourary inclusion to OntarioSales were down in the province, but only by 0.4%.

Buyers in Ontario, where the average sale price was almost $829,000 in September, face some of the highest home prices in Canada, and are on the front lines of the country’s trade war with the U.S.

But sales eked out minor increases in two of the province’s most expensive cities, Toronto and Hamilton, which we’ll deem a minor, short-term win. (Year-to-date, Ontario is still only one of three provinces where sales have fallen compared to 2024.)

Sales saw more pronounced monthly decreases in the following provinces:

Declines in provinces like B.C., Alberta and Quebec, where higher prices make qualifying for a mortgage more challenging under normal circumstances, should be expected in the current economic climate.

Decreases in affordable provinces like New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland might be more of a concern, especially if a downward trend is developing and Canadians aren’t able to afford homes that typically cost between $300,000 and $400,000.

Canadian home prices in September

Home prices were all over the place in September — which is good! A uniform cross-country decline in prices would signal widespread market distress.

Instead, the market’s behaving as it should: Prices are rising where demand is strong, and softening where it’s weak.

Here’s how prices behaved in some of Canada’s biggest housing markets. All percentages indicate year-over-year changes in the MLS Home Price Index benchmark price, the Canadian Real Estate Association’s preferred home price metric.

What’s next?

October might be similar to September in terms of sales: sluggish overall with a few bright spots. There just isn’t anything coming down the pike that’ll improve affordability or buyer sentiment.

Noticeably lower mortgage rates are weeks away at best. Variable rates won’t budge until at least October 30, the day after the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate decision. (It’s 50-50 whether the Bank will cut or not.) Recent activity in the bond market suggests fixed rates will stay near their current levels.

Unless the BoC shocks the market with a super-sized cut or bond yields suddenly plummet, rates won’t provide a solution for most prospective buyers. Their obstacles — debt, depleted savings and stifling everyday expenses — are here to stay.